What to Look Forward to in 2026, the Year of the Fire Horse

This year’s New Year celebrations were noticeably subdued. Few people working in education have fond memories of 2025, which despite the government’s flurry of initiatives turned out to be an Eeyore of a year rather than a Tigger.

In the Post-16 sector the year was dominated by steadily escalating financial difficulties, the depressing rise in NEETs, the sudden entrance of the DWP onto the adult skills stage following the government reshuffle in September, and the publication of the long-awaited Education and Skills White Paper in October. There’s certainly no shortage of new policies all lined up and ready to go, so can we expect an avalanche of policy implementation in 2026?

There are currently five DFE consultations running, three of which are of direct relevance to lifelong learning. The consultation on 16-19 pathways at Level 3 and below closes next week and will no doubt pave the way for the introduction of V levels over the next couple of years, hopefully in a way which will enhance the alternatives to A Level and avoid any further needless damage to Applied General qualifications.

The “national conversation” on SEND is also due to finish next week as we await another delayed White Paper, due out by February. With so many FE colleges increasingly involved in special education for 16-25 year olds, and so many local authorities being driven to the brink of financial collapse by the escalating cost of subsidising special education provision, the government’s attempts to rein back SEND spending – already over £4 billion a year and projected to rise to nearly £8 billion – are going to be closely scrutinised, and are almost bound to be controversial. They are likely to involve restricting rights to special needs support while asking mainstream schools, colleges and universities to embrace a wider range of learners with neurodiversity, mental health and other conditions.

The consultation on the technicalities of implementing the International Student Levy runs until mid-February. Although the detail is important – not just from a financial perspective, but in terms of the international image of UK HE – the levy is a fait accompli which has already further undermined the business model of most universities and led to a steady increase in the number of institutions running into deficit.

Meanwhile our new partner in skills delivery – the DWP – has maintained a deafening silence over key issues such as the future of apprenticeships. The public comments of Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden have almost all been focused on 16-24 year old NEETs and tackling the rising tide of economically inactive adults, and he’s had almost nothing to say about the skills needs of working adults and the flexibilities promised from the Growth and Skills Levy. This glaring gap surely needs to be filled by Easter, if we’re to have any chance of any new approaches being in place for the 2026/27 academic year.

With the great majority of Adult Skills funding now devolved to local authorities, the outcome of the English local elections in May will be watched with some nervousness. With 136 local councils and six directly elected mayors up for election, will we end up with more and more Reform party dominated Councils? The worry is that it’s very difficult to discern what Reform’s education policies are. What will be their approach to adult skills funding? Is ESOL provision under threat? We simply don’t know.

Amidst all the current uncertainty, we know one thing for sure: 2026 will at last see the launch of the Lifelong  Learning Entitlement, with enrolments due from September and first LLE courses starting in January 2027. Further updates on the DfE’s preparations are expected soon, and there’ll be an opportunity for members to hear the latest at an online conference I’m chairing organised by Westminster Forum on 30^th January. The LLE will be a continued focus for the LEI throughout the year, with further events planned.

There are key unanswered questions about how much impact the LLE will have in practice. Will working adults be prepared to take out student loans to upgrade their qualifications? How will the LLE work alongside the Growth & Skills Levy? Will it begin to reduce the skills shortages and gaps holding back economic growth and productivity?

This last question is the most important. With the UK economy still stuck in the doldrums, improving workplace skills to ensure we can take advantage of technological advances such as AI, is a crucial goal. But do we have the right policies in place to tackle this challenge? The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, the UK’s leading body for HR professionals, has continued to produce well-informed quarterly Labour Market Outlook reports. The Autumn update showed a rapidly cooling labour market characterised by the reluctance of many employers to commit to expanding their workforce and a growing pool of highly qualified graduates struggling to find job opportunities. The mismatch between skills supply and demand is an ongoing headache, one of the issues which we’ll be exploring with Chloe Smith, Chair of the CIPD, in our event on 28^th January.

The Chinese New Year starts in February, when we will enter the year of the Fire Horse. According to the Japan Times, this indicates that “2026 will be marked by visibility, acceleration, passion and decisive action.” With so many education and skills challenges confronting us, we’d better hope that this will turn out to be true.