15m New Students are Waiting for Lifelong Learning

We estimate that there are 15 million adults in the UK who will be potential new students when the Lifelong Learning Entitlement kicks off in 2026/27. It’s a big market, with a lot of customers in it, if HE providers can only reach them. In a world depressingly short of good news for the HE sector, the Lifelong Learning Entitlement represents one of the few opportunities to open up a significant new income stream.

How did we arrive at a figure of 15m? Firstly, according to the latest estimate, there are 34m adults of working age (16-65) who are in some kind of employment. If we reduce this by 5/6 to exclude those ineligible for the LLE -  16-18 year olds and over 60s – we have 28.3m remaining. Of these, according to the 2021 census, 17% have a Level 3 qualification, which is 4.8m. Of the 16m who have Level 4 qualifications or better, those born before 1988, who will be in the 38-59 age range when the LLE starts in 2026, won’t have incurred any tuition fee debt as they completed their studies before the student loan regime came in. This is around 5/12 of the 16m, which is 6.8m. Of the remaining 9.2m, let’s assume that 40% have not used their full LLE loan entitlement, which is 3.7m. Adding together 4.8m + 6.8m + 3.7m puts the total number of adults eligible for the LLE at 15.3m.

OK, we admit this is a bit of a “back of an envelope” calculation! If any of you have spotted any errors in our maths, or have more accurate estimates, please get in touch. But if we’re right, this means that the LLE market, assuming that on average each adult uses a year’s tuition fee entitlement, is worth a whopping £143 billion.

How to get these potential students to actually use their LLE is of course the big question.

Let’s assume that the government and HE providers are between them able to mount a publicity campaign effective enough to make all eligible citizens aware of it. There are, in our view, four factors which will then determine the likelihood of these 15m adults taking up their LLE entitlement.

1. Readiness for HE. Possessing sufficient L3+ qualifications to have a realistic prospect of being accepted on and successfully completing a L4+ qualification.

2. Relevance of HE. Being in an occupation, or aspiring to move into an occupation, where L4+ qualifications offer a tangible advantage in terms of protecting or improving career progression and increasing earnings.

3. Affordability. Having enough disposable income and sufficiently low existing personal debt liabilities to be able to afford extra student loan repayments through higher income tax. This will also involve calculating the probability of additional future earnings as a result of enhanced qualifications being more than the additional cost of loan repayments.

4. Accessibility. The availability of course offers flexible enough to fit round working adults’ busy schedules, probably requiring an element of on-line delivery.

For institutions, the key will be how to effectively communicate these key messages to the target market. There aren’t currently any obvious platforms through which to talk directly to prospective adult students, who are unlikely to automatically go through UCAS or any of the other websites advertising HE opportunities, which are designed for school leavers, not those already in the workplace. But there are some promising options, for example LinkedIn and a plethora of job-search sites, and it’s highly likely some new, specially tailored websites will emerge over the next couple of years. As with all new markets there are uncertainties and unknowns, but for those who get it right, and who can develop cost-effective models of short course delivery, the rewards are sizeable.

One final thought. The DfE are already thinking of the LLE as a “slow burn” project, evolving and maturing over a 10 year period. This means that providers’ marketing and business plans need to be similarly long-term, based on revenue building up year by year rather than an immediate avalanche of income. In the context of the current financial crisis affecting many HEIs, this is not in any way a quick fix, but part of the jigsaw of measures needed to re-engineer HE  business models.

So it’s decision time. Time to decide whether or not to enter this new market, and time to consider how much to invest in doing so. That’s why preparing for the LLE will be a key theme at our Annual Conference on 29th April, which will be followed by an online event on 20th May, “The Lifelong Learning Entitlement: How to Make it Work”. This will be the first of a series of events exploring in depth the opportunities and challenges of the LLE.

The next 18 months will be pivotal, so this is a chance for colleges and universities to get ahead of the game in thinking through how to make the most of this major opportunity.